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Who's Wrong: Predictions made by Dan McDougall

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Predictions made by Dan McDougall

Description of Dan McDougall » Group Everyday Joes
A Linux/Security geek who blogs at http://riskable.com

Who's Wrong Prediction Scorecard for Dan McDougall  
Total Known Predictions 32
Percent right 43% (13 Right, 17 Wrong, 2 Pending)

Dan McDougall Predictions
#1:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Downloadable TV shows will become more available, but copy restrictions will slow adoption. At least one Internet-only video show that has no restrictions whatsoever will begin to encroach on regular TV viewership.
Prediction Description:YouTube, the most unrestricted of all online TV offerings was the most successful in 2006. The IT Crowd had a greater viewers online than on regular TV. There are probably other shows that met the qualifications, but the success of The IT Crowd was impressive.
Outcome:Right
Outcome Description:All of the DRM-crippled offerings went absolutely nowhere (compared to YouTube).
#2:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:International Internet “TV shows” will make American companies start to lobby Congress to tax them and/or make them illegal.
Prediction Description:The television industry appears to be accepting the Internet as a legitimate distribution platform and are much more accepting than their MPAA/RIAA counterparts.
Outcome:Wrong
Outcome Description:It seems that the video delivery businesses (cable companies especially) are much more resentful and anti-Internet (e.g. see Comcast's support of anti-Net Neutrality legislation).
#3:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:People will finally start to listen to Internet radio in their cars thanks to high speed wireless networks.
Prediction Description:The cellular companies are still trying to break out into businesses models they'll never be successful with (e.g. selling individual music tracks).
Outcome:Wrong
Outcome Description:Cell phone companies need to remember that they're ISPs and focus their efforts on improving their capacity and speed.
#4:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Consumer Asterisk-based appliances will start showing up in stores like Best Buy and CompUSA. People will be able to use them with any service provider they choose or even with multiple service providers. This will result in Free World Dialup numbers having more significance.
Prediction Description:Still hasn't happened (yet).
Outcome:Wrong
Outcome Description:Wishful thinking.
#5:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Both Sirius and XM will announce excellent growth as a result of purchases during 2005’s holiday season
Prediction Description:From Sirius Q4 report: "Sirius ended 2005 with over 3.3 million subscribers, beating all published street estimates." Sirius added almost 2.2 million net new subs in 2005 with more than half coming in the 4th quarter alone (that's the holiday season). From XM's Q4 2005 report: "At the start of 2005 XM had 3.2 million subscribers and lead the competition by 2.1 million subscribers. Over the course of the year, XM increased that rate to 2.6 million subscribers adding 2.7 million net new subscribers or 45% more than we added in 2004. We closed the year with 5,932,952 subscribers an 84% year over year increase and the following week crossed the 6 million subscriber mark as holiday gift recipients continued to activate their radio. Despite an intensely competitive marketplace in the fourth quarter, XM acquired 898,315 net new subscribers, representing a 26% increase over the 713,101 subscribers added in the fourth quarter of 2004, including a 59% increase in year over year subscriber additions in the retail channel."
Outcome:Right
Outcome Description:Every now and then you're spot-on =)
#6:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Some company will sell a “blogpad”–a device similar to those email appliances that flopped a few years ago. Blogpads will also flop.
Prediction Description:No one sold anything close to a "blogpad" in 2005. Apparently the corporate world isn't *that* dumb.
Outcome:Wrong
#7:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:The Xbox 360 will be hacked and pirated games will start showing up on the net. Someone will get Linux to boot on it and Steve Ballmer will throw a whole couch.
Prediction Description:Only took four months after the Xbox 360's debut to be hacked so that pirated games could be run on it. Mod chips are now widely available.
Outcome:Right
Outcome Description:Microsoft touted the Xbox 360 as "unhackable". Apparently they never learn.
#8:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:KDE 4 will debut with the revolutionary announcement that it now runs on Windows (replacing Explorer). This will vastly increase the usage of KOffice and Kontact.
Prediction Description:KDE 4 is still in alpha as of 01/01/07.
Outcome:Wrong
#9:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Windows Vista will debut and none of the DRM features will work properly–causing consumer backlash and more Mac/Linux converts.
Prediction Description:This is both true and pending: The DRM features don't work properly ( see http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~pgut001/pubs/vista_cost.txt) but the Mac/Linux converts and backlash have yet to be determined since it only just came out for corporations.
Outcome:Pending
Outcome Description:We shall see
#10:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:MIT’s $100 laptop will sell more units in the U.S. than are bought/given away to 3rd world countries due to their open nature and hackability.
Prediction Description:Prediction was for 2006 and since the OLPC isn't out yet, this is wrong... But hopefully pending.
Outcome:Wrong
#11:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Microsoft’s anti-virus software will flop as a result of unreliable/too slow updates.
Prediction Description:Thanks to predatory pricing ($20/year) Microsoft's Live OneCare service drove to second place in sales taking 15% of the market.
Outcome:Wrong
Outcome Description:Microsoft's predatory pricing on this particular product is outrageous... They bought a company and started selling their product at 60% less than all their other competitors. This is the definition of antitrust behavior. See http://searchsecurity.techtarget.com/columnItem/0,294698,sid14_gci1195605,00.html
#12:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Security will be the buzz word of the year as lots of new laws go into effect. We’ll hear “Sarbanes-Oxley” a lot.
Prediction Description:While it may not seem quantifiable, this was so true in 2006 it was ridiculous. Google SOX and "Sarbanes Oxley" for news reports and it is off the charts for 2006.
Outcome:Right
Outcome Description:Big companies complain a lot about SOX and Graham-Bliley compliance but the cost to comply is really just the cost to act responsibly with due diligence. Should they really be complaining about that?
#13:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:The RIAA will lose a file sharing lawsuit. This will end up setting a precedent against them but it will not stop them from announcing thousands of more lawsuit filings.
Prediction Description:See http://www.p2p-weblog.com/50226711/riaa_gives_up_ground_in_lost_consumer_lawsuit.php
Outcome:Right
Outcome Description:Very correct. But then again, the mafia-related RIAA can always be expected to be up to no good.
#14:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:President Bush will be impeached as a result of his domestic spy operation.
Prediction Description:Nancy Pelosi said after the November elections in 2006 that impeachment is, "Off the table".
Outcome:Wrong
Outcome Description:Too bad.
#15:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Alito will be confirmed to the Supreme Court.
Prediction Description:Alito was confirmed
Outcome:Right
Outcome Description:Not a very difficult prediction.
#16:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:FEMA will screw up yet another hurricane disaster relief effort.
Prediction Description:No major hurricanes in 2006 to screw up with.
Outcome:Wrong
#17:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:The Democrats will win control of the Senate
Prediction Description:The Democrats won control of both the house and the Senate in the November elections of 2006. The Senate race was very close and was not widely predicted to go Democrat.
Outcome:Right
#18:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Jose Padilla will be transferred into civilian custody and brought to trial where he will be acquitted based on the fact that he was illegally detained.
Prediction Description:Both correct and pending. Jose Padilla was transferred into civilian custody and has had several court rulings in his favor but his trial was scheduled to take place on January 22nd, 2007. This prediction will be updated upon the close of his trial.
Outcome:Pending
Outcome Description:Even though it was a 2006 prediction I'm giving myself a bye since half of the prediction already came true.
#19:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:The Patriot Act will fail to be renewed, but lawmakers will try to slip Patriot Act-like provisions into other bills as riders.
Prediction Description:The Patriot Act was renewed in 2006 but with 27 additional civil liberty "safeguards".
Outcome:Wrong
Outcome Description:It was renewed and the "safeguards" are inadequate and still unconstitutional (IMHO).
#20:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:The earth will continue to warm and the U.S. will actually start taking steps to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
Prediction Description:The earth warmed in 2006 and many anti-global warming provisions (in various bills) were passed in Congress and in state governments.
Outcome:Right
Outcome Description:We need to do more. I think the most important step is to ban construction on all new fossil fuel power plants.
#21:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:The cost of oil will rise steadily throughout the year–faster than the historic norm–as a result of increasing oil consumption in China and India. Pundits will make comments like, “we cannot survive another Katrina oil crisis”
Prediction Description:Came true as predicted, but oil prices came down quite a bit in Q4 2006 and are back on the rise. The average price at the end of the year is still way up compared to 2005. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_Prices_Short_Term.png
Outcome:Right
Outcome Description:If the Saudis have been secretly hiding the reserves left in Gawar, we\'re in for a boatload of trouble.
#22:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:The U.S. will pass legislation allowing the construction of new fast breeder nuclear reactors and the media will buzz about sodium fires.
Prediction Description:No legislation was passed, but this is probably due to the fact that no company submitted reactor designs for approval to the EIA
Outcome:Wrong
Outcome Description:Still waiting for this efficient, environmentally-friendly design to take off in the U.S.
#23:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Advancements in stem cell research will cause related stocks to rise at phenomenal levels.
Prediction Description:Stock results for stem cell-related companies were mixed in 2006.
Outcome:Wrong
#24:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Some disease will be cured for the first time as a result of a stem cell transplant.
Prediction Description:No cures for humans yet. The only successful cures have been in animals so far.
Outcome:Wrong
#25:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:The “day after” pill will finally make it onto store shelves (over the counter).
Prediction Description:In 2006 the FDA approved the sale of Plan B over the counter for women over the age of 18.
Outcome:Right
Outcome Description:The FDA should strictly rely on science when making such decisions. Thank goodness reason finally won out over the protests of powerful religious influences.
#26:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Mount Augustine will erupt.
Prediction Description:After a 20-year hiatus, Mount Augustine erupted several times in January, 2006
Outcome:Right
#27:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Advancements in prosthetics will finally bring a usable mechanical hand. This same research will lead to advancements in brain-computer interfaces.
Prediction Description:Not available for general use yet, but the prediction is still true thanks to breakthroughs in NMPs. See: http://www.researchsea.com/html/article.php/aid/894/cid/2/research/ neuroscience__brain-computer_interfaces_.html
Outcome:Right
#28:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Vast amounts of melting ice will uncover at least one lost civilization and new fossil discoveries.
Prediction Description:New fossils are always discovered in melting ice =). However, no lost civilizations were found in 2006
Outcome:Wrong
#29:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Bird flu will not become the pandemic that people fear.
Prediction Description:No pandemic in 2006.
Outcome:Right
#30:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:An HIV vaccine will show promise in early trials and the world will speculate/complain on how much it will cost.
Prediction Description:Early trials have begun, but it will be some time before we see results.
Outcome:Wrong
Outcome Description:Here's to hoping.
#31:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:Saudi Arabia will admit that the Ghawar oil field has peaked. This will cause oil prices to spike, then fall again as people realize it will be a long time before the Saudis are completely out of oil.
Prediction Description:Didn't happen, but it may have already peaked. Since the Saudis are very secretive about the field, there won't be any way to know until it is drastically too late.
Outcome:Wrong
#32:   Entered by riskable (33) on 1/1/2007  »  Reference URL
Date Made:12/28/2005
Prediction:China will announce numerous advancements in their space program.
Prediction Description:The only thing they announced in 2006 was plans.
Outcome:Wrong


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