1. Question: Why did you make this site?
This site exists because there needs to be more accountability for people who constantly make predictions about the future. Sure, predictions are fun to make, and it's great to make them. But why not catalog and store them? We can look at a predictor's track record over time.
2. Question: Can you explain the name of the site -- "Who's Wrong"? I think it sounds too negative.
The name of the site stems from the fact that I feel most people who make predictions end up being wrong about them. We'll see when we can glean more data from users entering in people's predictions.
Note that being wrong about a prediction is not necessarily a Bad Thing. Making predictions requires you to stick out your neck, and take a stand. But now we can have a centralized place to see how prediction-makers fare over time.
3. Question: Is there more to come for this site?
Of course! The site is just getting started here (in December 2006), and you can count on lots of new features in the future! New features are being added almost every day. There will be lots more user interactivity, including comments, voting on predictions, etc. Stay tuned!
4. Question: What is the number in parentheses after my username?
That number is your user rating and it's a measure of how much you've contributed to the site. The formula is very basic. It's simply the number of people you've entered into Who's Wrong, plus the number of predictions you've entered. If you've entered 3 new people and 7 predictions for various people, your rating will be 10.
5. Question: Does a high user rating get me anything?
The respect of your peers. Not much other than that though, yet.
6. Question: What makes for a good prediction to enter into the site?
A good prediction is one that is quantifiable and explicit.
Quantifiable means that there should be some criteria to easily figure out if the prediction will be correct or not at some point in the future.
BAD: Unquantifiable predictions
"By the end of the decade, people will be happier than ever."
"The upcoming presidential election will be the nastiest to date!"
Prediction like those are simply impossible to measure and quantify on their own.
GOOD: Quantifiable predictions
"By the end of the decade, people will be happier than ever, as measured by XYZ University's Happiness index"
"The 2008 presidential election will be the nastiest election to date, measured by all-time high spending on negative campaign ads."
Explicit means that a prediction is on-the-record and publicly stated in advance of the action or result occurring. This is what we're after.
Implicit predictions, consequently, are those that are made in the course of everyday decision-making that dictate almost everything we do. When we do anything, we do it because our minds predict that it is the most appropriate action for us at the moment. This is free-will. Implicit predictions such as "I thought it would be a good idea to go bungee-jumping, but I broke my arm" should be avoided. There are an infinite number of these. This website's aim is to get a record of all explicit predictions.
7. Question: What do I do if one of the predictions is blatantly wrong?
Eventually there will be some way of moderating the predictions for users to handle on their own. But for now, just email us at and let us know about it!
--Last updated 12/31/2006